With high rates of unemployment, businesses closing (e.g., according to Yelp, 60% of restaurant COVID closures are permanent), a string of prominent bankruptcies, and falling consumer sentiment, the US is currently in “the steepest recession since World War Two.” According to MarketWatch, “An economy badly battered by the coronavirus shrank at a record 32.9% annual pace in the second quarter [of 2020], underscoring just how big a hole the U.S. finds itself in as it labors to recover from the deepest recession in American history.” Consumer spending fell 34.6% during the second quarter of 2020. Recovery is expected to be slow.
According to the National Restaurant Association, “In total between March and June, eating and drinking place sales levels were down more than $116 billion from expected levels, based on the unadjusted data.” While sales levels have grown since the height of the coronavirus restrictions, they’re still far below the usual levels. NRA surveys of restaurant owners show that they expect a slow recovery.
During the last major recession that started in December 2007, marketers played up the nostalgia angle and consumers’ desire for better, simpler times in the past. Throwback ad campaigns made a connection between the past and the present. Retro products and menu items harkened back to childhood memories and feelings of safety from 20 years ago. The ‘00s (aka, The Aughts) are due for a comeback.
Consumers seek comfort food during a recession and times of uncertainty. That pattern has already emerged during COVID-19 with pizza, pasta and hot dogs. Baking at home has been a popular past time and the interest in plant-based foods continues. People are looking for value without compromising quality, so smaller sizes of indulgent items are appreciated. Thanks to COVID-19, consumers are more concerned about cleanliness and food safety than ever.
Frozen yogurt is a comfort food and a small indulgence, so that bodes well for the froyo shops that can deliver a positive experience in a clean environment. Frozen yogurt did well during the last recession and the industry is considered recession-proof. That doesn’t mean that it will be easy. People will eat out less. We’ve already seen many froyo shops close. For those that survive, it’s time to think of nostalgic and comforting flavors.
For spring, lighter fruit centered flavors like citrus fruits and berries are appropriate.
- Fruit tarts
- Angel food cake
- Meringue
- Hot cross buns
- Lemon bars
- Strawberry shortcake
Summer evokes beach side gatherings, picnics, summer vacation, and county/state fairs. Think refreshing beverages, fair foods and tropical fruits like watermelon, coconut, papaya, and mango. No bake desserts are the popular during hotter months.
- Root beer float
- Lemonade
- Creamsicle
- Fair foods – funnel cake, cotton candy, churros
- S’mores
- Cookie dough
- Honey
For fall, it’s about warm spices in desserts like pumpkin pie, apple pie, and oatmeal cookies. Plus, the back to school theme would be appropriate (e.g., PB&J, candy).
- Butterscotch
- Candy inspired flavors
- Peanut butter, PB&J
- Warm spices and baked goods made with warm spices
- Pumpkin
- Donuts
Winter is about indulgence and baking – deep rich chocolate flavors found in brownies, molten chocolate cakes, hot chocolate, etc.
- Cakes, pies, cookies, brownies, cinnamon rolls
- Hot chocolate, cocoa
- Rocky road
- Rice pudding
- Red velvet
- Peppermint
